Stable and unstable equilibria in the dynamic model of political competition between two parties

Document Type : Promotional Paper

Authors

1 Department of Pure Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

2 Political Thought in Islam Group, Imam Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution Research Institute

Abstract

The inevitable conflict arising from the clash between two groups of different paradigms is a prominent phenomenon, and political competition for garnering the votes of citizens represents a prominent aspect of this conflict. In democratic societies, this confrontation reaches its peak before elections, ultimately leading to a relative equilibrium with the absolute or relative superiority of one of the parties. This article focuses on the dynamics of competition between two political parties and the process of reaching equilibrium, as well as the type of equilibrium in terms of stability. The degree of influence of each component of the parties' power in the emergence of the equilibrium point in party competition and the stability of the system around this point are issues that each party or group needs to address for its planning. The second issue is knowing, given the current situation, how to reach the equilibrium point in terms of the number of supporters of the two rival parties, and when is it possible? The pattern of models for infectious diseases and concepts of dynamic systems are used to model the process of changes in the number of supporters of the two rival political parties and study their competition dynamics. According to the results obtained, this system has one stable equilibrium point and three unstable equilibrium points. The initial conditions of both parties in any situation gradually move the system towards the stable equilibrium point. The timing of approaching this situation is also of great importance, which has been examined for several cases.

Keywords

Main Subjects


[1] R. Ayson, The complex stability of political equilibria, Political Science, 64 (2012) 145–161.
[2] F. E. O. Bazuaye, Sensitivity analysis and stabilization for two dynamical systems, Earthline Journal of Mathe-matical Sciences, 1 (2019) 33–40.
[3] N. Boccara, Voters fickleness: a mathematical model, International Journal of Modern Physics C, 21 (2009) 149–158.
[4] D. K. Campbell and G. Mayer-Kress, Chaos and politics: applications of nonlinear dynamics to socio-political issues, in The Impact of Chaos on Science and Society, United Nations University Press, Tokyo, 1991, 18–63.
[5] G. Carmona, Existence and Stability of Nash Equilibrium, World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore, 2012. [6] T. Chilachava and L. Sulava, Mathematical and Computer Modeling of Elections, Tskhum-Abkhazian Academy of Sciences Proceedings, XV-XVI (2018) 174–190.
[7] S. Coleman, Cycles and chaos in political party voting-A research note, Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 18 (1993) 47–64.
[8] J. A. Filipe and A. M. Ferreira, Social and political events and chaos theory-the “Drop of Honey Effect”, Emerging Issues in the Natural and Applied Sciences, 3 (2013) 126–137.
[9] B. Z. Goktuna, A dynamic model of party membership and iIdeologies, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 31 (2019) 209–243.
[10] J. F. Gordon and F. Nyabadza, Individual preferences and the growth dynamics of two political parties: insights through a simple mathematical model, Journal of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 9 (2020) 1–7.
[11] P. E. Johnson, Formal theories of politics: the scope of mathematical modelling in political science, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 12 (1989) 397–404.
[12] Q. J. A. Khan, Hopf bifurcation in multiparty political systems with time delay in switching, Applied Mathematics Letters, 13 (2000) 43–52.
[13] L. D. Kiel, The evolution of nonlinear dynamics in pPolitical science and public administration: methods, modeling
and momentum, Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 5 (2000) 265–279.
[14] P. Khrennikova, E. Haven, and A. Khrennikov, An aapplication of the theory of open quantum systems to model the dynamics of party governance in the US political system, International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 53 (2014) 1346–1360.
[15] P. S. Macansantos, Modeling dynamics of political parties with poaching from one party, Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1593 (2020) 1–6.
[16] A. K. Misra, A simple mathematical model for the spread of two political parties, Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, 17 (2012) 343–354.
[17] F. Nyabadza, T. Y. Alassey and G. Muchatibaya, Modelling the dynamics of two political parties in the presence of switching, Springer Plus, 5 Article number: 1018 (2016).
[18] M. J. Newman, Using mathematica biology to model a revolution, MSc. Thesis, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, 2018.
[19] P. F. J. Pere and D. Régis, Chaos theory and its application in political science, in IPSA World Congress, Fukuoka, Japan, 2006, 9–13.
[20] I. Peterson, Stability of equilibria in multi-party political systems, Mathematical Social Sciences, 21 (1991) 81–93. [21] S. Ranganathan, V. Spaiser and D. J. T. Sumpter, A Bayesian approach to modeling dynamical systems in the social sciences, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (Simultech-2013), (2014) 125–131.
[22] H. S. Rodrigues, Application of SIR epidemiological model: new trends, International Journal of Applied Mathe-matics and Informatics, 10 (2016) 92–97.
[23] D. M. Romero, C. M. Kribs-Zaleta, A. Mubayi and C. Orbe, An epidemiological approach to the spread of political third parties, Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems-B, 15 (2009) 707–738.
[24] N. Schofield, Local political equilibria, in Social Choice and Strategic Decisions, Studies in Choice and Welfare, D.
Austen-Smith and J. Duggan, eds., Springer, Berlin, 2005, 57-91.
[25] X. Wang, A. Akgul, S. Cicek, V. T. Pham and D. Hoang, A chaotic system with two stable equilibrium pPoints: dynamics, circuit realization and communication application, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 27 (2018) 1–14.
[26] A. Darabi, The Theoretical Principles Of Individuals’ Electoral Behaviors In The Islamic Republic Of Iran, Journal Of Communication Research (Pazhoohesh Va Sanjesh) 1 (2010) 9-37.
 
Volume 5, Issue 4
December 2020
Pages 69-85
  • Receive Date: 15 July 2021
  • Revise Date: 02 November 2021
  • Accept Date: 08 August 2021
  • Publish Date: 19 February 2021